A major breakthrough took place in the Ukrainian civil war, which is changing the geopolitical situation around the Southeast.
The Analytical Department of ANNA-NEWS is exploring the motives of the Russian leadership and the policy of nonintervention in the events in Ukraine.
The Donbass struggled and became stronger
First, not only were the Novorossiya voluntary forces not crushed by the Ukrainian Army and detachments of retributive expeditions, but actually strengthened, even while incurring losses. Specifically:
1. Donbass voluntary forces (militia) acquired a sufficient quantity of MANPADS to close the Donbass airspace.
2. The Kiev authorities’ aircraft is flying over the Donbass blindly, because the militia has destroyed or taken control of radar stations in controlled territory.
3. Kiev aviation group (Army Aviation and Air Force) have suffered heavy losses and been forced to use anything that can fly, including helicopters with United Nations markings.
4. The militia have acquired heavy weapons, particularly T-64 tanks, Grad multiple launch rocket systems, and sufficient amounts of cannon artillery not only for deterrence, but also for a gradual transition to the offensive.
5. Heavy shelling and the destruction of infrastructure has dramatically increased the influx of volunteers and accelerated the formation of new militias, including from miners who left idled mines in Akhmetov;
6. The unity of command is gaining strength parts militia leadership. At the same time, parts of Kiev and the Khaganate showed signs of confusion and disarray.
7. The Border is still under the control of the Donbass voluntary forces.
Kiev is exhausted
Secondly, Kiev’s retributory machine has begun to fizzle out. They have deployed almost all their reserves, which has frustrated those in regions loyal to Kiev:
1. Kiev units have suffered huge losses that the Kiev junta is forced to hide from the public.
2. Facts have emerged about choked transportation lanes and conscripts being stripped from their parents to be sent to the front.
3. Kiev authorities are not able to plan operations strategically, or even at the tactical level.
4. In Kiev controlled В/Ч they are repairing virtually everything possible. This indicates the depletion of stocks, workable machinery, and equipment;
5. Manipulation of equipment procurements have been reported, for example, body armor has been delivered with an insufficient protection class;
6. At the beginning of June, meetings were held in Kiev that meant to require soldiers be provided with the necessary equipment before being sent to the eastern front.
7. Dormant resistance cells were activated in Kiev controlled territory. It is a well known fact that campaign materials for Novorossiya are being distributed in Kherson, Kharkiv and Odessa.
8. The Eastern border is no longer controlled by Ukraine. The morale of the border areas controlled by Kiev have fallen to the point that they have abandoned border checkpoints, retreating deep into Ukraine, and at worst (for Kiev) have crossed the Russian border and are hiding there. It should be noted that the Russian Federation does not pursue Ukrainian border guards, who have escaped from Ukraine.
Inadequacy of Ukrainian elites
The incompetence of the Kiev authorities has been revealed, as has its absolute inability to negotiate and its inadequacy as managers:
1. The standard of living fell sharply in Ukraine: in lieu of «Europe» — there has been a tremendous growth in utility and commodity price payments.
2. Accelerating economic collapse: plant closings, reduced economic activity, rising unemployment.
3. The disruption of gas negotiations indicates that Kiev has no money. «No» in the sense of, «none at all».
4. A state of emergency has been caused in the energy sector, not only with the ceasing of pumping gas into storage, but also upcoming coal supply disruptions;
5. With budget increases derailed and credit frozen for Kiev, authorities have been forced to ask creditors to restructure their debt.
Gobbling up each other: escalation of an inter-species struggle
Battles between the Euromaidan factions of the Beni Kolomoyskiy Khaganate and the Tymoshenko faction have become more intense:
1. Ukrainian elites have selected to engage in simultaneous war with all on several fronts and are regularly tripping over each other.
2. Poroshenko, the President of Euromaidan entering into an open war with the head of the Khaganate, Igor Kolomoiskiy, as evidenced by Kolomoiskiy’s open disobedience to Poroshenko’s decision on a temporary truce in the Donbass and leaked information about Poroshenko’s intentions to remove Kolomoyskiy and his protege from power.
3. In Odessa, Gennady Trukhanov won the mayoral election, sworn to Kolomoiskiy, the Poroshenko protege, Edward Hurwitz, failed miserably.
4. Territorial defense battalions funded by Kolomoiskiy act in isolation from parts of Kiev, disobeying and conducting raids (the Azov Battalion of A. Biletskiy under the name of O. Lyashko and the shattered Idar Militia Battalion);
5. Poroshenko was forced to fight in Kiev, with Tymoshenko’s people, forcing them out of power and pushing the idea ofearly parliamentary elections.
Europe is given pause for thought
Four postponements for transferring Kiev to prepaid gas has led to a radical shift in EU policy towards Russia and energy supplies:
1. Europe, actually, acknowledged that Moscow’s proposed gas price for Kiev was fair.
2. Commissioner Oettinger initiated the transfer to prepayment and extended negotiations, which demonstrates the EU elites’ is aware of the depth of the energy problem.
3. Gazprom refused to use the Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities, preferring to pump gas directly to the EU underground gas storage facility.
4. Nord Stream temporarily shut down for scheduled maintenance from June 24 to 28, and only one branch of the pipeline will be active from June 28 to July 4.
5. The EU will reconcile with the required conditions within a month or two, after which it will accept almost any of Gazprom’s requirements for the South Stream and gas supply.
6. EU elites do not believe shale gas supplies from the United States are truly feasible (and rightly so).
Thus, the attitudes of European politicians are reformed, and its carriers are forced to look at the Ukrainian events not from an ideological standpoint, but from the perspective of the economy and a healthy pragmatism that brings the positions of the EU and the Russian Federation closer together. Under these circumstances, the United States finds themselves acting as a «third wheel».
Trends in the development of the Ukrainian Civil War
A number of trends and future developments in Ukraine can be predicted, based on the aforesaid, provided that Russian troops are not deployed in the Donbass and Ukraine. The deployment of troops will nullify this matrix scuttle all progress in the EU’s turn to Russia. Europeans will push for sanctions and the conclusion of the Transatlantic Free Trade Area Agreement with the United States, which will lead to a sharp increase in the US’s geopolitical position and the rapid weakening of Russia’s standing.